The Tides are Rising: A day with GWU Strategic Crisis Simulations

By Caroline Gilmore

The day is May 1, 2024: China is about to attack Taiwan, North and South Korea are poised at the precipice of conflict, and in India, unexpected floods force people from their homes.

Thus begins “Rising Tides,” the annual kinetics wargame organized by Strategic Crisis Simulations (SCS), an undergraduate-run organization at George Washington University.

Founded in 2009, Strategic Crisis Simulations seeks to educate members on U.S. foreign policy, international security, and conflict resolution through experiential learning opportunities. Each week, I and other executive board members craft fictional geopolitical crises into wargames. SCS then hosts weekly two-hour “drills” and bi-semester full-day simulations for students, professors, and professionals within the greater DMV region.

As SCS’s final simulation for the academic year, Rising Tides is a distinctly kinetic event. Participants practice formulating policy and hone their strategic planning and analytical perspectives while balancing command and posturing of armed forces.

This year’s Rising Tides Simulation focused on US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, simulating May to August 2024. The simulation featured three interwoven conflicts that began with a referendum on Taiwanese independence, North Korea’s missile launch backed by Chinese fuel, and unexpected floods in India’s Sikkim region. Structured around injects in the form of fictional media sources, government memos, and intelligence reports, these plotlines challenged players to navigate regional competition and complex relations to achieve their objectives.

For four hours this past Saturday, 55 simulation participants debated, negotiated, and worked through the unfolding crises. Divided into the civil and military components of seven countries, the participants reacted to injects and collaborated with others to pursue their objectives.

Each country received its own classroom “office” for strategizing throughout the simulation. With the teams for North Korea and Japan placed on one side of the building and India and the United States on the other side, participants flowed in and out of their offices, conversing in hallways and entering meeting rooms for official negotiations.

Mentors, who include professors, international affairs professionals, and SCS alums, moved from room to room, offering participants advice with their veteran wisdom or real-world experience.

Rising Tides is the only SCS simulation in which participants have the opportunity to resolve their conflicts through kinetic means instead of diplomacy. SCS relies on SAGE (Simulated Assets in Geospatial Environments), an open-source mapping platform built by recent alum, Sterling Richmond, to simulate the movement of assets in real-time. Participants on each country’s civil and military teams stayed alert to changes in the region’s security landscape through a map projection of each team’s military assets.

Despite expectations, Rising Tides 2023 did not result in war. Surprising even the Control team, participants turned to collaboration instead of conflict. They overcame challenges using crisis management methods, conflict resolution skills, and creativity.

Although the “tides” are now out for the spring semester, SCS will return with new crises and events in the fall. For now, please visit our website for more information about Strategic Crisis Simulations and for ways to become involved.

Caroline Gilmore (left on the picture above)  is a second-year honors student at George Washington University studying international affairs with a concentration in conflict resolution. She currently serves as the Vice President of Administration for Strategic Crisis Simulations and Secretary of the DC Student Consortium on Women, Peace, and Security. 

Editors Note (Mitch Reed): I was thrilled to be a part of this event and I was very impressed with the simulation the students conducted. We will hear more from Caroline and the events from SCS here on NDNG.