Bang for Buck: An Analysis of Bagration Soviet Artillery Options

By Richard Steer

Soviet artillery is quoted as being “the god of war”, so it is no surprise that there is a large array of artillery choices available in the  book for Flames of War. Being so spoiled for choice leaves players with some difficult list-building decisions. Mortars or guns? One big battery or two smaller ones? Which of the 8pt units is the best? Is Soviet artillery even worth spending any points on in the first place?

To test this, I built a model that simulates each dice roll in the scenario being tested to find an outcome, then repeats that simulation thousands of times in order to find the likelihood of each particular outcome occurring. The targets are dug in Careful infantry teams, with five teams under the Artillery Template, or nine teams under a Salvo Template. The other assumptions are that the Spotting Team is the Formation Commander, and a +1 penalty is added for Ranging In on terrain.

It is important to remember that dice can do strange thing, and the numbers may not line up with your experience. There are always going to be patches of good or bad luck, or that one in a thousand chance which could occur in a game, but knowing the most likely outcome does help you have realistic expectations that can assist with your planning for the game.

Comparison Between Nations

The first question I want to look at is how Soviet artillery in general compares to that of other nations. I have done this by calculating the average number of teams that are destroyed by a bombardment in the turn that you attempt to Range In, divided by the cost of the unit. The first comparison is between the typical medium mortar options of the four major nations, and the second is comparing towed four-gun batteries of Firepower 3+ artillery.

Soviet mortars offer very good value for the points due to their Aggressive rating not affecting their ability to bombard, and the small unit is only paying for three teams compared to other nations’ units of four. US and German mortars follow close quite a distance behind, while British 3-inch mortars suffer in this scenario due to paying for being Veteran, but Ranging In using a Trained Formation Commander.

The true artillery batteries have a much lower cost-effectiveness than the mortars, since they are paying for greater range, a direct fire ability, and gun shields, none of which have any impact on this particular scenario. Once again Soviet artillery offers better value for money than the Germans, with the Americans being the standout here due to the effect of Time on Target.

Basic Comparison

Having established that Soviet artillery is pretty well priced in comparison to the other nations, I now want to examine their different options. As before, this is going to be measured as the average number of teams destroyed in the turn you attempt to range in, presented both as the raw damage that they do in the turn, and that damage per point spent on the unit. I have also included a unit of four 76mm guns firing direct at Concealed Careful targets at Long Range, to see how that compares to firing as artillery.

The most powerful Soviet artillery option is the big unit of ISU-152s (rerolled misses and Firepower 2+), followed by the the big units of ISU-122s and 120mm mortars (rerolled misses and Firepower 3+), and Katyushas (nine teams under their template in this scenario, instead of the five for everything else). The chart also shows that the mortar units with six teams are only about 1.5 times as effective as the smaller units, despite being twice the price.

Turning this into cost-effectiveness, we see the mortars sitting at the top due to not having to pay for a direct fire capability etc. It’s not surprising that the heavily-armored ISUs are at the bottom end: very powerful, but expensive due to their heavy armor and high Anti-tank.

One thing that comes out of these charts is that no matter what type of artillery you are using, in the turn that you attempt to Range In on a target, the most likely outcome is that you are not going to destroy anything. To illustrate this, the next chart shows how likely each particular outcome is when attempting to range in a 122mm battery, giving only about a 25% chance of destroying at least one team.

Reconnaissance by Combat

The includes a card called Reconnaissance by Combat. This allows you to reposition a Ranged In marker after deployment. This results in a big increase in their power due to getting an immediate Repeat Bombardment on a target of your choice. The card is not Limited, so it is possible to take the card for each of your artillery batteries.

For the princely sum of two points, the average damage output of any Soviet artillery battery is approximately tripled for Turn One. This 3x increase in power is consistent across all of the batteries, meaning that the better the artillery battery, the larger the damage increase caused by using the card.

Without the risk of failing to Range In, and with the targets rerolling successful saves, the likely outcome of the bombardment lifts significantly. For a battery of four 122mm guns, the most likely outcome is now destroying one team, and about a 25% chance of destroying more than that.

Soviet Artillery Efficiency Rankings

The analysis produces a ranked list of artillery options, starting with the most cost-efficient bombardment, then working down through the next most efficient choice for the points.

1. 3 x 82mm mortars
2. 3 x 120mm mortars
3. Upgrade to 6 x 82mm mortars
4. Upgrade to 6 x 120mm mortars
5. 4 x Katyusha
6. 4 x 122mm guns
7. 4 x 152mm guns
8. 4 x 76mm guns or 3 x SU-76
9. Upgrade to 5 x SU-76
10. 3 x ISU-152
11. 3 x ISU-122
12. Upgrade to 5 x ISU-152
13. Upgrade to 5 x ISU-122

To be fair, there are lots of reasons for ignoring this list. You may have some spare points and want to trade off a bit of efficiency for an increase in Firepower. You may not like the Katyusha’s 5+ Save. Or you may have another reason for taking a unit from further down the list (e.g. a secondary anti-tank capability or the Under the Cover of Smoke command card). This ranked list does, however, provide extra information to help you make those decisions.

Summary

• Soviet artillery is good value compared to equivalent units from other nations.
• Artillery in general isn’t that good at digging out infantry, with most units doing it at an average rate of one team per turn.
• Doubling the size of a battery does not double its effectiveness.
• Reconnaissance by Combat has more value when used on your most powerful artillery units.
• Using ISUs as artillery is a waste of points as there are options that are just as effective for a fraction of the price, but if you are going to be taking them anyway then you might get some value out of applying Reconnaissance by Combat to them, to score some quick damage at the start of the game.
• The best bang for buck? The humble 82mm mortar.