By Richard Steer
Soviet artillery is quoted as being “the god of war”, so it is no surprise that there is a large array of artillery choices available in the book for Flames of War. Being so spoiled for choice leaves players with some difficult list-building decisions. Mortars or guns? One big battery or two smaller ones? Which of the 8pt units is the best? Is Soviet artillery even worth spending any points on in the first place?
To test this, I built a model that simulates each dice roll in the scenario being tested to find an outcome, then repeats that simulation thousands of times in order to find the likelihood of each particular outcome occurring. The targets are dug in Careful infantry teams, with five teams under the Artillery Template, or nine teams under a Salvo Template. The other assumptions are that the Spotting Team is the Formation Commander, and a +1 penalty is added for Ranging In on terrain.
It is important to remember that dice can do strange thing, and the numbers may not line up with your experience. There are always going to be patches of good or bad luck, or that one in a thousand chance which could occur in a game, but knowing the most likely outcome does help you have realistic expectations that can assist with your planning for the game.